https://virgool.io/feed/@arian.habib98 fa 2026-06-17 05:06:25 https://files.virgool.io/upload/users/2052386/avatar/avatar.png?height=120&width=120 https://virgool.io/@arian.habib98 https://virgool.io/@arian.habib98/europes-winter-rush-how-the-gas-crisis-became-an-opportunity-tcteqd4jpnhy After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, some ideologists in Iran discussed the "Rush Winter" scenario in Europe, suggesting it presented a golden opportunity for Iran to gain leverage in the West. While Europe did endure a winter marked by a scarcity of energy resources and high costs, the situation evolved. Europe now boasts ample LNG storage and is exploring the potential of reducing its dependence on Russian gas to facilitate energy transition.Is Europe's gas situation improving, and has the region managed to stabilize its energy crisis as winter approaches?In 2022, Europe saw a significant increase in its expenditure on oil, gas, and coal, surpassing the previous year by over €1 trillion. This doubled the share of its GDP allocated to energy costs.In response, Russia imposed sanctions, leading to a tightening of the global gas market, especially in Europe, where Russia had previously supplied around 40%of the natural gas.In the short term, Europe must prioritize sufficient gas storage to navigate through the winter, decrease reliance on Russian gas, and either maintain or reduce gas demand. Several initiatives have been implemented to achieve these objectives.One such initiative involves introducing minimum gas storage obligations, targeting at least 90%capacity for winter 2023/24 and beyond. This enhances the EU's energy security and aims for a more balanced storage cycle throughout the year.Additional policies have focused on the liquified natural gas (LNG) market, including mechanisms for LNG procurement to reduce price volatility through better coordination and storage.Concurrently, the EU Council introduced the Joint Purchasing Mechanism, facilitating joint purchasing and efficient demand-supply matching, even for countries outside the EU.Recent reports indicating "too much gas" in Europe demonstrate a remarkable shift in the situation for the EU, as highlighted by Q.Z.com.Thus far, these initiatives have yielded success, with Europe's gas storage reaching 79%by July 4th. If the current refill rate persists, storage is expected to reach its target capacity before October. Consequently, gas prices have significantly declined in the first half of the year.However, the EU must remain committed to its long-term objectives in the face of upcoming challenges, particularly as the southern regions of Europe grapple with severe heatwaves.It is crucial to maintain the policies and interventions that have curbed energy demand in the EU, ensuring that a surge in demand doesn't occur when the energy crisis subsides.The energy crisis has expedited Europe's transition, bolstering security and prompting consumption reductions. This period of upheaval also provides an opportunity to build on progress and further advance a diversified and resilient energy system.The risks are notably pronounced for Europe's industrial consumers, who would be the first to experience gas supply cuts should the situation worsen.According to the World Economic Forum, an estimated 27 bcm (billion cubic meters) can be added to the European Union's gas balance in 2023 while aligning with broader energy and climate goals. Achieving this primarily involves reducing natural gas demand through enhanced efficiency, accelerated renewable deployment, behavioral shifts, and heat electrification. Urgency is paramount, and the focus is on pragmatic, rapid-action steps.Additionally, the World Economic Forum's report suggests an investment of around EUR 100 billion is needed for the supplementary actions that bridge the remaining 27 bcm gap in 2023. Roughly half of this funding is allocated to efficiency improvements, particularly building retrofits, while 40%supports renewables. The remainder finances heat pump installations, biomethane projects, and efforts to reduce flaring and methane emissions. Habib Arian Habib Arian Thu, 10 Aug 2023 14:51:17 +0330 https://virgool.io/@arian.habib98/about-honest-money-tnxdsa0onwk8 5months ago, when the currency in Iran sharply depreciated, the country, along with many other developing nations, has been struggling with inflation. During this time, I came across the book "Honest Money" written by Gary North.The main idea of "Honest Money" by Gary North can be summarized in these sentences:1. Advocates for a return to a gold standard to ensure stable and honest money.2. Criticizes fiat currency systems and central banking for their potential to cause economic instability.3. Discusses the historical significance of money and its role in shaping societies.4. Emphasizes the importance of sound money in fostering economic growth and individual prosperity.5. Proposes alternative monetary systems that prioritize transparency and trust.Overall, North's criticisms focus on the potential negative consequences of government overreach and intervention in economic and societal affairs. He advocates for limited government and free-market principles to foster prosperity and individual autonomy.During Reagan's presidency, he made the following predictions about the future of monetary structure:First, the bankers and politicians are still in the business of continuing the status quo, which is the worst of the current situation. Second, the collapse will happen at a different stage. Inflation and hyperinflation, then price control, then dictatorship, then deflationary stagnation in the hole world.North's first prediction came true. Two of the most important of these events occurred in the first decade of this century. One was when the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates and the US economy grew. And another in 2008, when the administration passed a massive bailout that most Americans wanted. Both created these entities or bubbles: the housing bubble and the debt bubble. These two actions, which only exacerbate the crisis, reinforce North's argument, and the third prediction appears to be coming true. Countries are struggling with inflation and their debts are increasing.The article highlights the potential dangers of misinformation in the monetary system, leading to hyperinflation, hidden control of prices, and ultimately recession. North believes that a competitive market can counter misinformation by encouraging accurate information on a stable basis.However, he acknowledges that reviving a past model where governments are not involved in monetary affairs may not be possible. Instead, North suggests that the government's role should be limited to implementing correct weights and measures, preventing the issuance of unsecured treasury receipts. This, according to him, will lead to a society with real money, while any other solution would only be a half-finished measure.Ultimately, North seeks a political solution to achieve honest money, advocating for the elimination of the deficit reserve banking system and the removal of the government's monopoly on money issuance. He believes that these actions are crucial in establishing a stable and honest monetary system in society. Habib Arian Habib Arian Sat, 05 Aug 2023 15:52:42 +0330 https://virgool.io/@arian.habib98/bidenomics-joe-bidens-economic-policies-show-promising-results-wmtbcnmfbaya Bidenomics is the term used to describe the economic strategies of President Joe Biden. These policies are aimed at revitalizing the economy and promoting growth through a combination of fiscal stimulus, infrastructure investment, and tax fairness. By incorporating elements of both Keynesian interventionist and supply-side economics, Bidenomics places particular emphasis on funding infrastructure projects, supporting clean energy initiatives, and creating jobs, especially in the manufacturing sector.Fiscal stimulus is at the core of Bidenomics, which involves increasing government spending to give a boost to the economy. Biden's plan includes directing more funds towards infrastructure, education, and healthcare, all with the goal of creating jobs and fostering economic growth.Critics of Bidenomics argue that it places too much reliance on government spending and raises concerns about potential inflation. On the other hand, some experts believe that Biden's approach is not ambitious enough to tackle the long-term challenges the US economy faces.Despite the criticisms, recent data has shown promising results for Biden's economic policies. Inflation, a key economic indicator, has been cooling down more rapidly than expected. The consumer price index report for June, a popular measure of inflation, indicated that inflation rose by 3% year over year, marking the lowest level in over two years. On a monthly basis, the index rose by 0.2%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, increased by 4.8% from the previous year and by 0.2% on a monthly basis. This improvement has placed the US at the forefront of G-7 nations, boasting the lowest inflation rates for both headline and core inflation.As part of the effort to manage inflation, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates significantly since last March. These rate hikes constitute the fastest cycle in history, with interest rates reaching their highest point since September 2007, leading to a 16-year high in borrowing costs. High interest rates can help control inflation by discouraging spending from consumers and businesses due to increased borrowing costs, resulting in reduced economic activity.Despite the concerns and debates, Bidenomics has shown some positive outcomes, particularly in job creation. During Joe Biden's first 12 months in office, employers added an impressive 6.6 million jobs, setting a record and making it the strongest job growth in any president's initial year in office.While the future remains uncertain and the USA still faces significant challenges, particularly in international business and foreign relations policies, the initial results of Bidenomics appear promising. Efforts to address economic challenges and boost job growth are showing early signs of success, which could resonate positively with American voters. Habib Arian Habib Arian Wed, 26 Jul 2023 14:46:30 +0330 https://virgool.io/@arian.habib98/how-an-era-of-extreme-heat-is-reshaping-economies-cthqxpexxejv 1. A study published by academics at Dartmouth last year found that heatwaves, brought on by human-caused climate change, cost the global economy an estimated $16tn over a 21-year period from the 1990s.2. The International Labour Organization projected that by 2030, the equivalent of more than 2 per cent of total working hours worldwide would be lost every year, either because it is too hot to work or because workers have to work at a slower pace due to extreme heat.3. Around 200 million people in cities today are at risk from extreme heat, a number that is expected to grow eightfold by 2050, according to Sachin Boite, director of climate resilience at the C40 network of mayors pushing for environmental action.4. Between 1992 and 2016, 285 construction workers in the US died from heat-related causes, about a third of all the country’s occupational deaths from heat exposure, according to academic research.5. Research from Arsht-Rock found that corn, the most widely produced US crop, is losing about $720 million in revenue annually because of extreme heat, which will increase to a projected $1.7 billion by 2030.6. According to data from reinsurer Swiss Re, heat-related catastrophe losses for insurers, such as crop failures from drought or wildfire damage to properties, amounted to $46.4 billion in the five years to 2022, up from $29.4 billion in the previous five years. Habib Arian Habib Arian Wed, 26 Jul 2023 14:39:51 +0330 https://virgool.io/@arian.habib98/de-dollarization-in-iran-who-is-it-running-and-what-is-its-aim-uipzpkflszkn International reports show that reliance on the dollar for trade is decreasing; more and more countries from Brazil to Asian countries are calling for trade to be carried out in other currencies besides the dollar, and the share of dollars in global foreign exchange reserves are decreasing. De-dollarization is a term that is frequently used in the world and Iranian politicians are taking advantage of this concept. A group's interpretation of de-dollarization as a tool to control inflation has been put forth.decrese of foreign exchange reserves and international tradingA decrease in foreign exchange reserves and an increase in international trading with currencies other than the US dollar have been observed recently. According to IMF data, the share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves decreased to 58.6% in the fourth quarter of last year. This is due to the Federal Reserve's efforts to control domestic inflation by raising interest rates, which has caused other central banks to raise their interest rates to prevent capital outflows and the depreciation of their currencies. Additionally, China, the world's second largest economy, has become a more dominant presence in global trading, with it being the largest trading partner to 61 countries, compared to the US's 30. This has led to a push for more transactions to be done in other currencies, allowing exporters and importers to mitigate risks, diversify their investments, and increase their profits. China is also creating yuan swap lines with other central banks, and developing its own international payments infrastructure, encouraging other nations such as Saudi Arabia and Brazil to finance more of their trade using the yuan.weaponization of the dollar The U.S. and its western allies have utilized the weaponization of the dollar to freeze more than $300 billion of Russia's foreign currency reserves in response to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This has led to Russia and other countries searching for alternative currencies to trade in and increase gold in their reserves. The Dollar Network Is The Main Basis Of Financial Sanctions And During These Sanctions, Iran faced many complexities in selling oil and petroleum products in the markets. There is no doubt that the weaponization of the dollar, as part of the establishment of a structure of restraint aimed at Russia, China, and Iran, has made them apprehensive, and eager to attempt to sanction-proof themselves financially - if such a thing is even possible.De-dollarization, in the worldThe IMF has demonstrated that reserve diversification is possible, yet, with no realistic substitute to the US dollar, the notion that the yuan could become an internationalised currency is unconvincing. In order for this to happen, China would need to permit the rest of the world to accumulate extensive liabilities in yuan, meaning either a sustained large external deficit or the option for capital to move outwards freely. These measures, however, would not be enough to make the yuan a reserve currency without the trust and other characteristics connected with full internationalisation. With the US dollar making up 88% of all international transactions, and the euro at 31%, and the yuan at 7%, it appears that de-dollarisation is unlikely to progress very far.Whats happening in Iran?Recently, Ebrahim Raisi, the President of Iran, has declared that Iran is cutting the "umbilical cord" of the US dollar from it’s economy. Before him, a member of Parliament had talked too about cutting the umbilical cord of the dollar!After Donald Trump withdrew the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and imposed new sanctions on Iran, the concept of de-dollarization has become a frequent words for Iranian politicians. The severe financial sanctions have put great strain on the Iranian economy, causing the Iranian Rial to lose value drastically; Since Ebrahim Raisi was chosen as president, the value of the Iranian rial has fallen by 147%, and the current exchange rate is 0.000024 rial to the dollar. At the same time, inflation in Iran is rising; the current annual inflation rate has reached 47.7%, the highest it has been in the last 25 years.In these circumstances, a new literature of economic thought is emerging. It is underpinned by an ideological approach to economic policies. The weaponization of the US dollar and its use in sanctions against Iran, the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the imposition of sanctions against Russia, have all enabled the rise of an extremist group that has gained considerable power and decision-making authority.Yaser Jabraili, a new theorist of the concept of de-dollarization in Iran, has proposed a different solution to controlling inflation. He believes that the main cause of inflation is the increasing rate of the US dollar, and the increasing price of oil in the domestic market. His proposed solution is to fix the price of the US dollar and provide free oil to both consumers and domestic industries. He calls this economic policy package "de-dollarization of Iran's economy".Chief, Centre for Strategic Assessment of Implementing the macropolicies of I.R.R. is critical of the neoliberal approach, asserting that inflation is not a monetary phenomenon and the rate of inflation has nothing to do with the growth of liquidity. He is seeking to implement his package in order to rid Iran's economy of the US dollar.Dollar and inflation cycleIn the latest official reports, the point-to-point inflation rate in the past decade has been broken, reaching 58.6% last month. Iran's economy has experienced price shocks and inflationary waves for several years, and the currency price, specifically the dollar price, appears to be the driving force of these shocks. Negative political events, foreign exchange turbulence, and changes in inflationary expectations cause a sharp increase in the dollar price, which is followed by an increase in the price of other assets. This, in turn, leads to a rise in the price of consumer goods and an overall increase in the price level. This has led to some, such as Jabraili and his associates, to consider removing the dollar from the Iranian economy in order to protect it from inflationary shocks. Proposed actions include pricing goods based on the Riyal price of production inputs, stabilizing the dollar price, emphasizing the decline of the dollar in the world, and paying attention to Bilateral Currency Swap Agreements.A same mistakesCurrency price controls and riyal pricing have been experienced multiple times before, resulting in extensive damage to Iran's economy. Determining the preferred currency and riyal pricing of natural resources used in export industries are two examples of these cases. Before the difference between the price of the preferred currency and the free currency, a large rent accrued to the recipients of this preferred currency every year, and this subsidy did not reach the consumers. On the other hand, the riyal pricing of the country's natural resources brought about strange and unfortunate consequences. For instance, providing cheap riyal gas to petrochemical companies led them to attempt to produce and sell urea, resulting in one of the products with the lowest added value. The development of petrochemicals is limited to upstream industries with less efficient products due to the policy of requiring pricing of inputs. It can be said that despite the widespread damage caused by policies such as fixing the currency price and riyal pricing of production inputs, their support is either due to ignorance of their effects or groups benefiting from them.Bilateral Currency Swap AgreementsThe discussion surrounding dollarization has highlighted the need to reduce the reliance on the US dollar in trade through bilateral currency swap agreements. These agreements are characterized by the parties being able to transact without the need for sanctions and the settlement of trade surpluses through international currencies. In doing this, the two countries involved in the agreement strive to reduce the use of the universal currency, rather than eliminate it entirely. Furthermore, this action is taken in unsanctioned conditions. It is important to note that trading with currencies other than international ones requires the consent of both trading partners, and the insistence on a bilateral currency agreement may limit or discourage trading partners. As such, we must acknowledge the limitations of bilateral currency agreements. Iranian economist Hashem Pesaran has argued that the share of these currencies in transactions is very small and limited, and, even with the possibility of limited utilization of these instruments, the entirety of a country’s foreign transactions cannot be entrusted to them.De-dollarization, from dream to realityThe concept of de-dollarization has been used by new groups in Iran as a tool to reduce inflation. This term usually refers to reducing the use of the US dollar in international trade transactions. Although its share of these transactions has decreased, it still holds more than 58% of the world's foreign exchange reserves and is used in approximately 90% of international transactions. This is due to its wide global network for instant exchange, its markets offering a variety of tools, its new monetary and financial standards, and its freedom to enter and exit. Additionally, the US is the leading trade economy with an open capital account, stable security, privileged political position, and relative goodwill, making its decline unlikely in the near future. Habib Arian Habib Arian Tue, 09 May 2023 20:48:48 +0330 https://virgool.io/@arian.habib98/regulatory-complexity-of-cryptocurrencies-in-iran-h5k94fbosrnu Under the pretext of publishing the annual report of Nobitex exchangeAs the cryptocurrency industry expands across the globe, Iran too is gaining an increasing number of fans. Although many countries have already implemented regulations in this area, Iran still faces obstacles due to the lack of legislation in the field. Bitcoin was the first cryptocurrency to be launched, and over the course of its 13 year existence, it has managed to gain many admirers worldwide. The primary purpose of launching cryptocurrencies was to remove the limitations of the traditional financial system, and with the help of blockchain technology, cryptocurrency transactions have been made more transparent and intermediary-free. The success of the cryptocurrency industry is due to the many advantages it offers to its users. Several cryptocurrency exchanges have been launched in Iran in the past few years, allowing people to exchange digital currencies.What are the benefits of cryptocurrencies to Iranians?In recent years, Iran has come under the pressure of American sanctions, severely limiting international trade. Cryptocurrencies provide an opportunity to bypass these sanctions, facilitating cross-border trade and financial transactions. However, legislation is needed in order to make use of cryptocurrencies, and while some countries have already implemented regulations, others are in the process of doing so. Iran has taken some steps in this field, but the regulatory environment of cryptocurrencies remains mostly unclear and there is no specific law in this regard.Therefore, it is necessary to create a legal framework for the use of cryptocurrencies in Iran. This legal framework should include financial regulations and rules for the use of cryptocurrencies in the country, as well as to protect the interests of investors and other users.Are cryptocurrencies banned in Iran?No, there is no specific law that prohibits cryptocurrencies in Iran. However, due to the decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies, people can still exchange digital currencies in various ways. This lack of legislation or prohibition has led to an increase in the number of people operating in the cryptocurrency market illegally and on underground platforms, as well as an increase in fraudsters. To protect the interests of investors and other users, it is necessary to create a legal framework for the use of cryptocurrencies in Iran. This legal framework should include financial regulations and rules for the use of cryptocurrencies in the country. Estimates show that there are currently more than 4 million active Iranian users in the field of cryptocurrencies. Now, all valid digital currency exchanges in the country operate by authenticating and receiving customer details, and hence the activities of individuals are known.Nobitex 2022 report: In 2022, one million and 87 thousand people registered in Nobitex and joined Nobitex. At the end of this year, the number of users.Nobitex reached four million and 318 thousand people. The age of Nobitex users is 35 years and 22% of users are women.The Cryptocurrency Mining IndustryThe cryptocurrency mining industry was one of the first sectors that the policy makers entered. The main reason for this was the lack of energy and related issues. Bitcoin mining requires a significant amount of electricity, and in recent years, Iran has been facing a shortage of electricity, particularly in the summer season. With the increase in the price of cryptocurrencies and the increase in mining, the high electricity consumption of Bitcoin mining has become one of the main reasons for the lack of electricity in the country, resulting in more power outages. As a result, the Ministry of Energy entered this area and tried to control electricity consumption. Therefore, since 2018, a regulation for cryptocurrency mining was developed in the country, which underwent reforms over time. In the presented regulations, it was mentioned that people who intended to work in this industry should first obtain a license from the Ministry of Industry. Additionally, in order for the activists of this industry not to face the restrictions related to the lack of energy, they could use renewable energy or build energy production plants themselves. Activists could also increase their mining opportunities by investing in the optimization and saving plans of the Ministry of Energy, the use of flare gases, gas power plants separately from the grid, and electricity of the national grid during the days when the grid is not in critical conditions in terms of peak consumption. The new cryptocurrency mining regulations were announced by the first vice president at the end of November 2022. It seemed that in this regulation, more attention was paid to the activists in the field of cryptocurrency mining than in the past. According to the new regulation of cryptocurrency mining, there is no reduction in energy tariffs related to this area, but still, since the tariffs are calculated at the export rate, taxes and value added, as well as power supply costs, will no longer be added as they were in the past. However, when utility bills were issued for the activists in this field, it was observed that the charges for gas or electricity, along with value added and taxes, increased this cost. In the new resolution that was presented two months ago, it was seen that the legislator had clearly announced that the rate should be determined in such a way that the price announcement includes the costs of power generation, taxes, and value added, so that it becomes equivalent to the export average. Therefore, an additional 19 percent of taxes, energy supply, and added value are included in this export tariff. On the other hand, it was in January of 2023 that a new regulation was announced by the Ministry of Industry. In this regulation, it was announced that requests related to mining activists must be approved by the Ministries of Oil and Energy. In other words, all issuance of permits, renewal of establishment permits, and issuance of operating permits are subject to the response of inquiries from the Ministries of Oil and Energy. Furthermore, the holders of operating licenses and authorized farms are obliged to notify the service unit of the Ministry of Industry of any changes in equipment, assignment, or updates in the type and number of equipment in three-month intervals.Importing with CryptocurrenciesRecently, the government has taken action in the form of a resolution from the Central Bank of Iran regarding the use of cryptocurrencies for imports. According to this resolution, cryptocurrencies mined by centers with domestic licenses can only be used to pay foreign currencies for imports, and must comply with foreign currency laws related to imports in the country.The Cyber Police Document on CryptocurrenciesIn December of 2022, the Iran Cyber Police (FATA) provided a document to cryptocurrency activists entitled "Cyber-Policy Requirements for Cryptocurrency Exchange Brokers". FATA Police divided the requirements of this document into five sections: administrative requirements, rial-cryptocurrency accounts, identity authentication, cryptocurrency exchange platforms, and law enforcement. This document has been met with criticism and surprise from some activists in this field. For example, one of the requirements states that a company with an exchange must be a general partnership. Another requirement prohibits companies from providing services in the field of cryptocurrency to foreigners. These requirements also state that if FATA police, after evaluations, reviews, and notices, concludes that the activities of the exchanges are not compliant with the spirit of these requirements, they will ask SHAPARAK(electronic payment network) to block their portals. Monopoly signs are also seen in the sector of providing security for active platforms in the field of cryptocurrency, since it has been announced that companies active in this sector must periodically, every six months, perform a security test by a "police-approved" evaluating company. Another strange thing about these requirements is that companies are required to keep all information related to the records of transactions and transactions of users in a secure manner for at least 10 years. This is also true for a company that has been dissolved. These requirements, which are spread across 13 pages, are, according to FATA police, aimed at companies providing cryptocurrency exchange services under the title of cryptocurrency exchange brokers. In the introduction of these requirements, it is emphasized that compliance with its provisions by cryptocurrency exchange brokers does not mean the granting of an official and legal activity license. It is also pointed out that the audience of this document is required to comply with all security attachments, notices, and orders issued by the governing and government institutions (law enforcement, supervision, banking) of the country.Parliament's support for the legalization of cryptocurrenciesParliament's support for the legalization of cryptocurrencies has been evident in recent years. Mohsen Alizadeh, a member of the Economic Commission of the Islamic Council, has advocated for the creation of a unified law for the field of cryptocurrencies. This would solve the problem of multiple institutions making decisions regarding the operation and regulations of the exchange and buying and selling of cryptocurrencies. Jabar Kochinejad, a member of the Parliament's Program and Budget Commission, has also suggested the 7th plan should include requirements for the use of cryptocurrencies, including mining, exchange and buying and selling. Moreover, Mojtaba Tavanger, head of the digital economy committee of the Islamic Council, has called for precise legal solutions for creating, publishing, maintaining and exchanging cryptocurrencies. Despite this support, the cryptocurrency industry still has a long way to go in terms of regulation. Habib Arian Habib Arian Mon, 01 May 2023 15:14:23 +0330